:Product: 0811RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Aug 11 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 223 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Aug 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 904 (S13E51) continued
to develop in size and complexity, and produced four C-class flares
today, the largest of which was a C2.8 flare at 11/0041 UTC.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a possibility of M-class activity from Region 904.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.  The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Aug 084
Predicted   12 Aug-14 Aug  085/085/085
90 Day Mean        11 Aug 076
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Aug  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Aug  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug  005/005-003/005-003/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01