:Product: 0812RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Aug 12 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 224 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Aug 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Today's activity consisted
of a few, low-level B-class flares. Region 903 (S13E38) continues to
be large, but has simplified magnetically with the consolidation of
the leader spots.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days. There is a slight chance for an
isolated M-class event sometime during the next three days.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels
during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Aug 085
Predicted   13 Aug-15 Aug  085/085/085
90 Day Mean        12 Aug 076
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Aug  003/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Aug  007/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01