:Product: 0813RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Aug 13 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 225 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Aug 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Today's activity consisted
of a few B-class flares from Region 904 (S13E38). This region
continues to be the only spotted group on the disk. The large leader
spot showed simplification and consolidation of the umbra regions;
the large trailer spot showed slow emergence of new magnetic flux.
The region is predominantly bipolar but has some small areas of
mixed polarity, making the group a beta-gamma magnetic class.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low, with just a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare
from Region 904.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally quiet for the next three days (14-16
August).
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Aug 086
Predicted   14 Aug-16 Aug  085/085/085
90 Day Mean        13 Aug 076
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Aug  004/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Aug  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01