:Product: 0814RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Aug 14 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Today's activity consisted
of a couple B-class events from Region 904 (S13E11). The region
showed some slow growth today and appears to be slightly increasing
in magnetic complexity in the trailer portion of the group.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days (15-17 August). There is a slight
chance for an isolated M-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels during the past 24
hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (15-17
August).
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Aug 086
Predicted   15 Aug-17 Aug  086/086/086
90 Day Mean        14 Aug 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Aug  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01