:Product: 0815RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Aug 15 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 904 (S14W03)
produced four B-class flares during the past 24 hours.  The largest
of these was a B8 flare at 15/1044Z.  The penumbra in the large
trailer spot appears to be breaking apart; however, the area, number
of spots, and magnetic complexity have not changed significantly
since yesterday.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.  There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.  The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Aug 086
Predicted   16 Aug-18 Aug  086/086/090
90 Day Mean        15 Aug 076
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug  002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01