:Product: 0816RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Aug 16 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Aug 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 904 (S12W15) produced a
long duration C3.6/Sf flare with maximum occurring at 16/1617Z.  An
associated partial, or possibly full, halo CME was first observed on
LASCO imagery at 16/1630Z.  The estimated plane-of-sky speed was
about 800 km/s.  A Type IV radio sweep was associated with this
event.  In spite of today's activity, Region 904 has generally
remained unchanged during the past 24 hours.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.  There is a chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.  The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet on 17-18 August.  Unsettled to
active conditions, with isolated periods of minor storm levels, are
expected on 19 August due to effects of the above-mentioned CME.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Aug 086
Predicted   17 Aug-19 Aug  086/090/090
90 Day Mean        16 Aug 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Aug  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Aug  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug  005/005-005/005-025/025
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/35
Minor storm           05/05/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/35
Minor storm           10/10/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/15