:Product: 0817RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Aug 17 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 229 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Aug 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 904 (S13W28) produced
two C1 flares in the past 24 hours.  This region continues to be the
only spotted group on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.  There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.  The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 18 August.  Expect active to
minor storms levels on 19 August, with possible isolated major storm
conditions.  This activity is expected due to the full halo CME
obseved on 16 August.  Predominantly unsettled to active levels
should return on 20 August.
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Aug 086
Predicted   18 Aug-20 Aug  090/090/090
90 Day Mean        17 Aug 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Aug  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Aug  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug  010/010-025/025-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/35/30
Minor storm           10/20/15
Major-severe storm    01/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/35/30
Minor storm           15/25/20
Major-severe storm    05/15/10