:Product: 0821RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Aug 21 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 233 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Aug 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Newly numbered Region 905
(S08E72) produced six C-class flares over the past 24 hours, the
largest of which was a C3 flare at 21/0226Z.  Region 904 (S12W88)
produced two C-class flares, including a C4/Sf at 20/2102Z.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 905.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with a single active
period.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods on 22
August.  Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 23 - 24 August.
III.  Event Probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Aug 088
Predicted   22 Aug-24 Aug  090/085/085
90 Day Mean        21 Aug 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Aug  014/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Aug  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Aug-24 Aug  008/008-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01