:Product: 0822RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Aug 22 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 234 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Aug 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  A long duration B-class
flare was observed at 22/1324Z from Region 904 on the west limb.  A
faint and slow moving CME was first observed on the east limb by
LASCO at 22/0636Z.  As there were no front-sided events near in time
to the CME, it is likely backsided and not expected to be
geoeffective.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been unsettled to active.  Elevated solar
wind speed due to a geoeffective coronal hole combined with an
extended period of southward Bz produced active conditions during
most of the day at mid and high latitudes.  The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next two days (23 - 24
August).  Expect predominantly quiet conditions on 25 August.
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Aug 081
Predicted   23 Aug-25 Aug  080/080/080
90 Day Mean        22 Aug 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Aug  010/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Aug  017/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug  010/010-008/012-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01