:Product: 0823RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Aug 23 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Region 905 (S08E47), the
only sunspot group on the visible disk, produced isolated B-class
flares. This active region exhibited little change this period and
maintains a reversed polarity magnetic structure.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels. There is a slight chance for a C-class flare
from Region 905.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed
declined from a maximum of near 500 km/s to end the period at 420
km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
was at high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods.
III.  Event Probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Aug 078
Predicted   24 Aug-26 Aug  080/080/080
90 Day Mean        23 Aug 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug  017/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Aug  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug  008/008-005/008-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05