:Product: 0824RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Aug 24 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 236 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Aug 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Region 905 (S08E33) is the
only sunspot group on the visible disk, and maintains a reversed
polarity magnetic configuration. This region produced no flare
activity this period; however, regular brightness fluctuations with
low B-class x-ray enhancements were observed. No other activity of
note occurred this period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a chance for a C-class flare from Region 905.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 25 and 26 August. A recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream is expected to rotate into a
geoeffective position on 27 August and produce occasional active
periods.
III.  Event Probabilities 25 Aug-27 Aug
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Aug 078
Predicted   25 Aug-27 Aug  080/080/080
90 Day Mean        24 Aug 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Aug  004/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Aug  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Aug-27 Aug  005/005-005/008-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Aug-27 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/30
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/35/40
Minor storm           10/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05