:Product: 0825RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Aug 25 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 237 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Aug 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z:  Solar activity remains at very low levels. Region 905
(S08E20), the only sunspot group on the visible disk, produced
occasional B-class x-ray enhancements, but was otherwise stable this
period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels. There is a slight chance for a C-class flare
from Region 905.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was high again this period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 26 August. A recurrent high
speed coronal hole stream is expected to rotate into a geoeffective
position on 27 and 28 August, and produce unsettled to active
conditions with isolated minor storm periods.
III.  Event Probabilities 26 Aug-28 Aug
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Aug 077
Predicted   26 Aug-28 Aug  080/080/075
90 Day Mean        25 Aug 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Aug  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Aug  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Aug-28 Aug  005/008-010/012-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Aug-28 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/30
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/40/40
Minor storm           10/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/10/10