:Product: 0826RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Aug 26 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 238 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Aug 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 905 (S08E05) produced a
C2 flare at 26/2007Z. New opposite flux emerged around the leading
sunspot resulting in increased flare potential in this reverse
polarity group.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a chance for further C-class flares from Region
905.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed ended the period
near 330 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storm conditions over the next
three days. A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected
to rotate into a geoeffective position on 27 and 28 August, and
produce unsettled to active levels with isolated minor storm
periods. Quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated active periods
are expected on 29 August. The x-ray signature of the C2 flare late
today indicates a possible CME. The flare location was near center
disk so a geomagnetic disturbance is possible on 29 August. The
forecast will be updated as appropriate to reflect this change.
III.  Event Probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Aug 076
Predicted   27 Aug-29 Aug  075/075/075
90 Day Mean        26 Aug 076
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Aug  000/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Aug  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Aug-29 Aug  010/012-010/012-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/25
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/30
Minor storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/05