:Product: 0827RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Aug 27 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 239 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Aug 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 905 (S06W07) has
produced only B-class activity during the past 24 hours.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-class activity from Region 905.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels.  The solar
wind speed increased to about 550 km/s over the past 24 hours due to
the coronal hole high speed stream.  A minor storm period was
observed between 27/1500Z - 27/1800Z as Bz varied between 20 nT and
-15 nt.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active on 28 August.  Expect unsettled
to active conditions with a chance for isolated minor storm periods
on 29 August due to the possible CME associated with the C2 flare
observed on 26 August.  Further unsettled to active conditions are
expected on 30 August.
III.  Event Probabilities 28 Aug-30 Aug
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Aug 079
Predicted   28 Aug-30 Aug  080/075/075
90 Day Mean        27 Aug 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Aug  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Aug  014/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Aug-30 Aug  010/012-015/018-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Aug-30 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/40/35
Minor storm           15/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/50/40
Minor storm           20/30/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10