:Product: 0828RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Aug 28 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 240 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Aug 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 905 (S08W22)
produced a C1.8 flare during the past 24 hours.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a continued chance for C-class flares from Region 905.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet to unsettled
conditions.  The solar wind speed remains elevated at approximately
550 km/s due to a coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active levels on 29 August due to the combination
of a partial halo CME observed on 26 August and the currently
geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream.  On 30 August
conditions should abate to unsettled and then to quiet on 31 August.
III.  Event Probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Aug 076
Predicted   29 Aug-31 Aug  075/075/075
90 Day Mean        28 Aug 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Aug  012/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Aug  012/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Aug-31 Aug  020/020-012/015-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/20
Minor storm           20/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/35/25
Minor storm           25/20/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/05