:Product: 0829RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Aug 29 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  During the past 24 hours
region 905 (S08W35) has produced two C-class flares, a C1.4 and a
C2.1.  This region has shown signs of decay and is now a magnetic
class Beta sunspot group.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been predominately quiet to unsettled.  The
solar wind speed remains elevated at approximately 550 km/s due to a
coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the forecast period (30 August - 1
September).  Due to the currently geoeffective coronal hole high
speed stream there may be isolated periods where the geomagnetic
field is unsettled for day one of the forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Aug 073
Predicted   30 Aug-01 Sep  075/075/075
90 Day Mean        29 Aug 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug  009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Aug  010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep  005/010-002/005-004/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01