:Product: 0830RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Aug 30 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Aug 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.  Solar wind speed
remains elevated due to a coronal hole high speed stream, however,
velocity is steadily decreasing as this coronal hole rotates out of
a geoeffective position.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the forecast period (31 August - 02
September).  Towards the end of the forecast period another coronal
hole high speed stream will rotate into a geoeffective position and
its effects may be seen on day three of the forecast period though
the timing is imprecise.
III.  Event Probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Aug 074
Predicted   31 Aug-02 Sep  075/075/070
90 Day Mean        30 Aug 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Aug  009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Aug  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep  002/005-004/005-004/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01