:Product: 0901RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Sep 01 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to low levels today.  Region
906 (S09W65) produced the largest flare of the period, a C1 x-ray
event that occurred at 01/0506Z.  Analysis in white light indicates
that the sunspot growth rate has slowed and the region is classified
as a Dso beta group.  Region 905 (S08W81) has shown steady decay
over the period and has been classified an Hax alpha sunspot group. 
Updated LASCO imagery depicts a CME resulting from yesterday's B7
x-ray flare that does not appear to be Earth-directed.  No new
regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very to low levels.  Region 906 has the potential to produce C-class
flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.  A chance
for active to isolated minor storm conditions are possible on 03
September due to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Sep 077
Predicted   02 Sep-04 Sep  075/075/075
90 Day Mean        01 Sep 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Sep  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep  008/010-012/020-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/25/20
Minor storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/35/25
Minor storm           05/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/10/05