:Product: 0902RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Sep 02 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for an isolated C-flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. An isolated active period
was observed at middle latitudes between 01/2100 to 2400 UTC due to
a prolonged period of southward Bz.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with isolated minor storm periods
possible on 03 - 04 September due to a coronal hole high speed
stream moving into geoeffective position.  On 05 September,
conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Sep 076
Predicted   03 Sep-05 Sep  075/075/080
90 Day Mean        02 Sep 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep  008/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Sep  006/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep  012/020-010/012-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor storm           25/15/10
Major-severe storm    15/05/01