:Product: 0903RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Sep 03 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for an isolated C-flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active
period at middle latitudes between 03/0300 - 0600 UTC. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods
possible on 04 September. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected
on 05 and 06 September.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
Class M    01/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Sep 077
Predicted   04 Sep-06 Sep  075/080/080
90 Day Mean        03 Sep 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Sep  008/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep  008/015-006/008-004/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/15
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01