:Product: 0904RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Sep 04 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Sep 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  A CME was observed on the
Muana Loa coronagraph at 04/1701 UTC likely associated with a long
duration B2.8 flare on the west limb. This CME is not expected to be
geoeffective. No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to major storm levels. A major
storm period was observed between 04/0300 - 0600 UTC due to the
effects of a coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed at ACE
increased from approximately 410 km/s to 630 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with minor storm periods possible
due to the continued effects from the coronal hole high speed stream
on 05 September. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 06
and 07 September.
III.  Event Probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Sep 079
Predicted   05 Sep-07 Sep  080/080/080
90 Day Mean        04 Sep 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Sep  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Sep  018/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep  010/012-006/008-004/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/15
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01