:Product: 0905RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Sep 05 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. New Regions 907 (S13E44)
and 908 (S13E71) were numbered today. New Region 908 is likely the
return of old Region 904 (S14,L=121).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed is
still elevated at approximately 500 km/s but has been in decline
this period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Sep 080
Predicted   06 Sep-08 Sep  080/085/085
90 Day Mean        05 Sep 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep  015/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep  006/010-004/008-004/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/15
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01