:Product: 0908RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Sep 08 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 251 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Sep 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 909 (S09W04)
produced a long duration B5 event at 08/1058 UTC.  LASCO imagery
observed a faint halo CME, however, data was too scarce to be sure
about the event.  There were three low level B-class flares reported
during the observed period, but no direct correlation can be made
with the CME activity.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for an isolated C-class event from Region 909.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.  The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet.  Quiet to unsettled conditions
are possible for 11 September due to a recurrent coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Sep 087
Predicted   09 Sep-11 Sep  085/085/085
90 Day Mean        08 Sep 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Sep  005/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Sep  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Sep-11 Sep  005/005-005/005-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01