:Product: 0910RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Sep 10 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 253 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Sep 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 909 (S11W30)
produced a long duration B6 event at 10/0723 UTC.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for an isolated C-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.  The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for 12-13 September due to
possible effects from a coronal hole high speed stream.  Quiet
conditions are expected for 14 September.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Sep-13 Sep
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Sep 087
Predicted   11 Sep-13 Sep  085/085/085
90 Day Mean        10 Sep 076
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Sep  001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Sep  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep  008/008-008/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Sep-13 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01