:Product: 0913RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Sep 13 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 256 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Sep 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 909 (S09W80)
produced multiple B-class flares during the past 24 hours.  The
largest of these was a B7 flare at 13/0416Z.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.  There is a slight chance for an isolated C-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (14-16
Sep).  Isolated active conditions are possible on 16 Sep as a
recurrent coronal hole rotates into geoeffective position.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Sep 083
Predicted   14 Sep-16 Sep  082/080/080
90 Day Mean        13 Sep 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Sep  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Sep  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Sep-16 Sep  005/005-005/005-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01