:Product: 0914RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Sep 14 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 909 (S08W95) produced a
C1 flare at 14/0735Z, along with multiple B-class flares, during the
past 24 hours.  Region 908 (S13W47) produced two B-class flares.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.  There is a slight chance for an isolated C-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet on 15 Sep.  Quiet to unsettled
conditions, with isolated active periods are expected for 16-17 Sep,
as a coronal hole high speed stream moves into geoeffective
position.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Sep 083
Predicted   15 Sep-17 Sep  080/080/080
90 Day Mean        14 Sep 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep  003/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep  005/005-008/010-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/25
Minor storm           05/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05