:Product: 0915RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Sep 15 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  The largest flare of the
past 24 hours was a B8 flare from Region 908 (S13W60) at 15/0622Z.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days, with
possible active periods on 18 September due to an expected coronal
hole high speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Sep 080
Predicted   16 Sep-18 Sep  080/080/078
90 Day Mean        15 Sep 078
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Sep  002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep  005/005-008/010-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/25
Minor storm           05/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05