:Product: 0916RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Sep 16 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Sep 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Only B-class activity has
been observed for the past 24 hours.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (17 - 19 September).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for active periods
on 17 - 18 September due to a geoeffective coronal hole high speed
stream.  Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 19 September.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Sep 079
Predicted   17 Sep-19 Sep  078/075/075
90 Day Mean        16 Sep 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Sep  000/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Sep  002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Sep-19 Sep  010/015-005/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/15
Minor storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01