:Product: 0917RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Sep 17 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 260 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Sep 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active, with a minor storm period
observed by Boulder Magnetometer from 0900 - 1200Z.  Solar wind
speed increased to about 500 km/s during the reporting period due to
the geoeffective coronal hole.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for active periods
on 18 September due to continuing effects from the coronal hole high
speed stream.  Expect quiet to unsettled conditions on 19 - 20
September.
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Sep-20 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Sep 078
Predicted   18 Sep-20 Sep  075/075/075
90 Day Mean        17 Sep 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Sep  001/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Sep  010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Sep-20 Sep  008/008-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Sep-20 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01