:Product: 0918RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Sep 18 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 261 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Sep 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Newly numbered Region 910
(S08E49) produced a C1 flare at 18/1945Z.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels.  Two
minor storm periods from 18/0000Z - 18/0600Z were likely the result
of elevated solar wind speed from the coronal hole high speed
stream.  Solar wind speed remains elevated at time of issue at
approximately 650 km/s.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for active periods
on 19 September as the coronal hole rotates out of a geoeffective
position.  Expect mostly quiet conditions on 20 - 21 September.
III.  Event Probabilities 19 Sep-21 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Sep 074
Predicted   19 Sep-21 Sep  075/075/075
90 Day Mean        18 Sep 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Sep  009/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Sep  018/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Sep-21 Sep  010/012-005/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Sep-21 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/15
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01