:Product: 0919RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Sep 19 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 262 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Sep 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Region 910 (S09E37)
produced occasional B-class flares. A weak Type II radio sweep was
observed at 18/2356Z, which was associated with a faint CME from
Region 910. The CME is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There is a slight chance for a C-class flare from Region 910.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The disturbed periods were
in response to a high speed coronal hole stream. Solar wind speed
was near 650 km/s, but gradually declined to under 500 km/s by the
end of the period. The greater than 2MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Sep 073
Predicted   20 Sep-22 Sep  075/075/075
90 Day Mean        19 Sep 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Sep  016/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Sep  012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep  008/008-005/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01