:Product: 0920RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Sep 20 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 263 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Sep 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Region 910 (S09E24)
contains the lone sunspot on the visible disk today. No activity of
note was observed.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet with isolated unsettled conditions.
Solar wind speed has declined to below 380 km/s. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on 21 and 22 September. A recurrent coronal
hole high speed stream is expected to rotate into geoeffective
position on 23 September and produce occasional active to minor
storm periods.
III.  Event Probabilities 21 Sep-23 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Sep 071
Predicted   21 Sep-23 Sep  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        20 Sep 078
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Sep  008/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Sep  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Sep-23 Sep  005/005-005/005-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Sep-23 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/40
Minor storm           01/01/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/50
Minor storm           01/01/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/10