:Product: 0921RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Sep 21 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 264 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Sep 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 910 (S09E10)
remains the only sunspot group on the visible disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.  The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels on 22 September.  Unsettled to active
conditions with isolated minor storm periods are possible on 23
September due to a favorably positioned coronal hole high speed
stream.  Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to return for 24
September.
III.  Event Probabilities 22 Sep-24 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Sep 071
Predicted   22 Sep-24 Sep  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        21 Sep 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Sep  003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Sep  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Sep-24 Sep  005/005-015/020-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Sep-24 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/40/30
Minor storm           01/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/50/40
Minor storm           01/20/15
Major-severe storm    01/10/05