:Product: 0922RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Sep 22 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Region 910 (S09E10)
produced several B-class flares this period. New opposite polarity
spots have emerged to the southeast and southwest of the single
trailer sunspot.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels. There is a slight chance for a C-class flare
from Region 910.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels over the next
three days. A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected
to rotate into a geoeffective position and produce occasional active
to minor storm periods on 23 and 24 September. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected on 25 September.
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Sep 072
Predicted   23 Sep-25 Sep  075/075/075
90 Day Mean        22 Sep 078
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep  002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep  015/020-010/012-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/20
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/40/25
Minor storm           20/15/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/01