:Product: 0923RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Sep 23 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 266 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Sep 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity was low with one C-class flare produced
by Region 910 (S10W18).  Seeing conditions at all optical sites have
ranged from poor to non-existent so there is some disagreement in
the magnetic classification of this region, however, a
classification of Beta seems most likely.   The San Vito optical
site reported a Type II radio sweep from 23/1106Z - 23/1114Z with an
estimated shock speed of 711 km/s.  No current imagery is available
to aid in determining the possibility that a CME may be associated
with this radio event or in identifying the location of this event. 
Within an hour of the radio sweep GOES 11 experienced an enhancement
of >1 MeV proton flux which peaked at 1800Z and is now decreasing.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.  There remains a slight chance for a C-class flare from Region
910.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet with one unsettled period.  Activity
is due to both the occurrence of a solar sector boundary crossing
and the beginning of a coronal hole high speed stream now rotating
into a geoeffective position.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
was at high levels again today, however, at approximately 1930Z flux
decreased to below the threshold level for the first time in several
days.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active levels with some isolated
minor storm periods.  This activity is due to a recurrent coronal
hole high speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 24 Sep-26 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Sep 070
Predicted   24 Sep-26 Sep  075/075/075
90 Day Mean        23 Sep 076
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Sep  001/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Sep  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Sep-26 Sep  010/020-006/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Sep-26 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10