:Product: 0924RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Sep 24 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 267 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 910 (S09W32)
remains the only sunspot group on the visible disk and is now
magnetic classification alpha.  Both the San Vito and Sagamore Hill
radio sites reported a Type II radio sweep with very similar times
(24/1526Z - 24/1532Z) with an averaged estimated shock speed of 660
km/s.  San Vito reported plage fluctuations and surging that
coincided with the Type II radio sweep.  An increase in x-ray flux
was observed during this period and reached the level of an A9.3
flare.  No current imagery is available to aid in determining the
possibility that a CME may be associated with this radio event.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare from Region
910.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was active with multiple periods of minor
storming.  Solar wind speed is approximately 650 km/s due to a
coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with occasional active periods
during the forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Sep 070
Predicted   25 Sep-27 Sep  070/070/080
90 Day Mean        24 Sep 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep  007/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Sep  016/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep  008/008-005/008-006/006
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05