:Product: 0925RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Sep 25 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Sep 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 910 (S08W46) has
decayed to a plage region with no spots visible in white light
imagery.  Updated LASCO imagery shows a CME originating from behind
the NE limb on 23 Sep.  A slow CME was also observed from Region 910
on 24 Sep.  Neither event is expected to be geoeffective.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.  Solar wind speed
remains elevated (currently 525 km/s) due to a coronal hole high
speed stream.  The speed has, however, been steadily decreasing the
past 24 hours as the coronal hole rotates into a less geoeffective
position.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the forecast period (26 - 28
Sep).
III.  Event Probabilities 26 Sep-28 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Sep 070
Predicted   26 Sep-28 Sep  070/080/075
90 Day Mean        25 Sep 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Sep  015/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Sep  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep  005/008-006/008-008/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Sep-28 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05