:Product: 0926RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Sep 26 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 269 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Sep 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  New Region 911 (N08E73)
was numbered today.  A CME was observed on the LASCO coronagraph at
26/0131Z.  This slow moving CME was apparently from behind the east
limb and is not predicted to be geoeffective.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominately quiet to unsettled with an
isolated active period at mid-latitudes.  Solar wind speed remains
elevated (currently 500 km/s) due to a coronal hole high speed
stream.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels
again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled 27 - 29 September.
III.  Event Probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Sep 071
Predicted   27 Sep-29 Sep  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        26 Sep 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Sep  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Sep  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Sep-29 Sep  006/008-006/010-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05