:Product: 0928RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Sep 28 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 271 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Sep 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z:  Solar activity continues at very low levels. An
eruptive prominence was observed at S31 on the west limb during the
middle of the period.  Three new regions were numbered today,
Regions 912 (N06E65), 913 (S18E68), and 914 (S07E75).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.  The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 29 September.  Active
to minor storm conditions are expected to begin late in the period
on 30 September due to a recurrent coronal hole.  The elevated field
conditions should persist into 01 October.
III.  Event Probabilities 29 Sep-01 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Sep 073
Predicted   29 Sep-01 Oct  075/075/080
90 Day Mean        28 Sep 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Sep  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Sep  002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Sep-01 Oct  006/008-015/015-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Sep-01 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/25/25
Minor storm           05/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/30/40
Minor storm           05/15/20
Major-severe storm    01/05/10