:Product: 0929RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Sep 29 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z:  Solar activity remains at very low levels.  New Region
915 (S06W46) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels today.  The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels. Isolated
minor storm conditions are possible on 30 September and 01 October
due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.  Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected to return on 02 October as the
coronal hole wanes.
III.  Event Probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Sep 077
Predicted   30 Sep-02 Oct  080/080/080
90 Day Mean        29 Sep 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Sep  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct  015/020-015/015-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor storm           15/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/30/20
Minor storm           20/15/05
Major-severe storm    10/05/01