:Product: 0930RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Sep 30 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  Region 915
(S06W59) has developed into a Dso beta magnetic sunspot group.  It
was the source for a B7.2 x-ray flare which occurred at 30/1703Z. 
No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels during the
period.  Active conditions are due to the onset of a favorably
positioned coronal hole.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit were at high levels early in the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels.  Minor
storm conditions are possible on 01 October due to a recurrent
coronal hole.  Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 02 and
03 October.
III.  Event Probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Sep 078
Predicted   01 Oct-03 Oct  080/080/085
90 Day Mean        30 Sep 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Sep  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct  015/015-008/008-006/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/15
Minor storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/20/20
Minor storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    11/01/01