:Product: 1001RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Oct 01 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Oct 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  30/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm conditions.
Activity was due to the continued influence of a coronal hole high
speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Oct 078
Predicted   02 Oct-04 Oct  080/085/085
90 Day Mean        01 Oct 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Sep  009/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Oct  018/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct  008/008-006/008-004/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01