:Product: 1004RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Oct 04 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 277 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. A CME was first observed
off the west limb on LASCO imagery at 04/0854 UTC. This CME probably
originated from active Region 915 (S06, L=291) which rotated around
the west limb on 03 October. The ejecta was directed to the west and
is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet.
III.  Event Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Oct 077
Predicted   05 Oct-07 Oct  075/075/075
90 Day Mean        04 Oct 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Oct  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Oct  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct  004/005-002/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01