:Product: 1013RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Oct 13 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  The solar disk remains
spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.  Solar wind speed started
to increase late on 12 October due to a geoeffective coronal hole
high speed stream, and continued to rise throughout the reporting
period.  At time of issue, the solar wind speed was approximately
520 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for isolated minor
storm periods on 14 October due to the coronal hole high speed
stream.  Expect mostly quiet to unsettled conditions on 15 - 16
October.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Oct 073
Predicted   14 Oct-16 Oct  072/070/070
90 Day Mean        13 Oct 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct  003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct  015/015-010/010-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/10
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/25/15
Minor storm           20/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01