:Product: 1014RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Oct 14 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  The solar disk remains
spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active.  Solar wind speed
remains elevated at approximately 540 km/s.  The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for isolated active
periods on 15 October.  Expect quiet to unsettled conditions on 16 -
17 October.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Oct 072
Predicted   15 Oct-17 Oct  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        14 Oct 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct  015/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct  008/008-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01