:Product: 1015RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Oct 15 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  The solar disk remains
spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active.  Solar wind speed has
been decreasing throughout most of the day as the coronal hole
rotates out of a geoeffective position.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (16 - 18
October).
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Oct 071
Predicted   16 Oct-18 Oct  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        15 Oct 076
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct  012/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Oct  008/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01