:Product: 1016RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Oct 16 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remains
spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Oct 070
Predicted   17 Oct-19 Oct  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        16 Oct 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct  004/005-004/005-004/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/25
Minor storm           10/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05