:Product: 1017RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Oct 17 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. There are no sunspots on
the visible disk today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind slowly declined to near
370 km/s by the end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosychronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on 18 and 19 October. Active and minor
storm periods are expected on 20 October as a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream rotates into a geoeffective position.
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Oct 070
Predicted   18 Oct-20 Oct  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        17 Oct 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Oct  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct  005/005-005/008-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/40
Minor storm           01/01/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/50
Minor storm           01/05/30
Major-severe storm    01/01/10