:Product: 1018RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Oct 18 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Oct 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity continues at very low levels. There are
no sunspots on the visible disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed declined to below
320 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet with isolated unsettled periods on 19 October.
A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to rotate
into a geoeffective position on 20 October, and produce active to
minor storm periods on both the 20th and 21st.
III.  Event Probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Oct 070
Predicted   19 Oct-21 Oct  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        18 Oct 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Oct  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Oct  002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct  005/008-015/020-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/40/35
Minor storm           01/20/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/50/45
Minor storm           05/30/25
Major-severe storm    01/10/05