:Product: 1019RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Oct 19 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. New Region 917 (S05W04)
was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm conditions on 20 and 21
October due to a coronal hole high speed stream becoming
geoeffective.  Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 22
October.
III.  Event Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Oct 070
Predicted   20 Oct-22 Oct  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        19 Oct 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Oct  003/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct  015/020-010/015-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/15
Minor storm           20/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/45/35
Minor storm           30/25/15
Major-severe storm    10/05/05